Methodology
ZinsCapital organises macro research into four layers, from regime to portfolio implication, so every conclusion has context, confirmation, and an invalidation path.
The research chain
Each layer narrows uncertainty. No single signal is treated as a decision on its own.
What environment are we in?
Classify growth, inflation, policy, and the direction of change. The purpose is not a single label; it is a shared starting point for every downstream decision.
Inputs
Decision output
A regime definition and base-rate playbook
Is the system adding or removing impulse?
Assess liquidity, credit creation, real rates, yield curves, and funding conditions as a transmission system rather than independent indicators.
Inputs
Decision output
The direction and strength of financial impulse
Is the market validating the thesis?
Use credit, FX, commodities, equity breadth, volatility, and positioning to test whether the macro story is present in traded markets.
Inputs
Decision output
A confirmed, challenged, or unresolved thesis
Where does the thesis meet actual exposure?
Move into sectors, factors, securities, scenarios, and portfolio sensitivities while keeping the original macro conditions and invalidation points visible.
Inputs
Decision output
An auditable watchlist, exposure map, and risk plan
Research discipline
The goal is not to manufacture certainty. It is to make assumptions, evidence, and risk conditions easier to see.
Start with the measured state and direction before writing the narrative.
Separate where a variable is from whether it is accelerating or decelerating.
A macro thesis remains provisional until related markets support it.
Define what would weaken the view and which observations should change the playbook.
Your macro process, connected
Start with the free Macro Pulse. Move into full research or speak with us about an institutional workflow.