Bull steepening vs bear steepening
A decision-oriented guide to the two curve moves that share a shape but imply very different macro stories.
Summary
Bull steepening usually means short yields are falling faster than long yields. Bear steepening usually means long yields are rising faster than short yields.
Why it matters
One may reflect policy easing and weakening growth; the other can reflect stronger growth, inflation pressure, fiscal risk, or rising term premium.
What to watch
Change in the 2-year yield
Change in the 10-year yield
Inflation breakevens
Credit and equity confirmation
Research workflow
- 01Observe the slope change
- 02Attribute the move to curve legs
- 03Check inflation and policy pricing
- 04Map the result to duration and cyclical exposures