COT analysis
How to use futures positioning as context for crowdedness, divergence, and regime confirmation, not a mechanical reversal signal.
Summary
Commitments of Traders data shows how participant groups are positioned in futures markets. The value comes from history, normalisation, and cross-market context.
Why it matters
Extreme positioning can persist. It becomes more informative when price, macro drivers, and the position change begin to diverge.
What to watch
Net and gross exposure
Historical z-score
Weekly change
Price and macro divergence
Research workflow
- 01Choose the relevant participant group
- 02Normalise against history
- 03Compare with price and carry
- 04Use as confirmation or crowding risk